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1. 1. The Science Of Conjecture

   Evidence and Probability Before Pascal

   

   A history of how people reasoned about evidence and uncertainty long before modern probability theory, focusing on the practical and intellectual tools developed to make decisions under risk. It examines legal standards of proof, moral certainty in theology, mercantile insurance, actuarial thinking, and gambling, showing how lawyers, theologians, merchants, and gamblers weighed testimony and quantified chances in practice. By tracing these traditions from antiquity through the early modern period, it reveals the gradual emergence of concepts that later enabled a formal mathematics of probability.

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