Megaprojects And Risk by Bent Flyvbjerg

An Anatomy of Ambition

A critical examination of why large-scale infrastructure projects so often run over budget, behind schedule, and underperform on promised benefits, tracing the root causes to optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, and flawed incentives in politics and organizations. Through international case studies, it reveals how power dynamics and institutional pressures distort forecasts and decision-making. The book outlines practical remedies—such as reference class forecasting, rigorous risk management, transparency, and stronger accountability—to improve project selection and delivery and better serve the public interest.

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