How To Actually Change Your Mind by Eliezer Yudkowsky

A concise, practical guide to how to revise your beliefs correctly: it argues for treating opinions as probabilistic, prioritizing predictive accuracy over persuasion, seeking and weighing evidence, running small experiments, and calibrating confidence; it also describes cognitive pitfalls like motivated reasoning and social incentives that block honest updating and offers habits and strategies to encourage genuine belief change when new data arrives.