Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock

The Art and Science of Prediction

In this insightful exploration of predictive accuracy, the book delves into the art and science of forecasting, revealing how certain individuals, known as "superforecasters," consistently outperform others in predicting future events. Through a blend of rigorous research and engaging anecdotes, it uncovers the traits and techniques that set these exceptional forecasters apart, such as open-mindedness, intellectual humility, and a relentless commitment to learning and adapting. The narrative challenges conventional wisdom about prediction, offering practical strategies for improving decision-making and enhancing foresight in an increasingly complex world.