Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
This insightful work delves into the accuracy of political forecasting, examining the abilities of experts to predict future events. Through a comprehensive study spanning two decades, it reveals that experts often perform no better than chance, highlighting the limitations of human judgment in complex political environments. The book categorizes forecasters into "foxes," who embrace diverse perspectives and adapt to new information, and "hedgehogs," who rely on a single grand theory. It underscores the importance of humility, open-mindedness, and adaptability in improving the quality of political predictions.
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- Published
- 2005
- Nationality
- American
- Length
- Moderate
- Pages
- 352
- Original Language
- English
- Avg User Rating
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(4.0)
- Alternate Titles
- None
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