The Theory That Would Not Die by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

An accessible history of Bayesian probability, tracing Bayes’ rule from its 18th-century origins to its 21st-century prominence. It follows the method’s exile under frequentist orthodoxy and its dramatic revivals in wartime codebreaking, nuclear search efforts, Cold War intelligence, and modern computing, spotlighting the scientists who advanced it. Along the way, it explains the core ideas in plain terms and shows how they reshaped science, medicine, economics, and everyday technology.

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