Hollywood Economics by Arthur De Vany
How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry
An analysis of the movie business that treats box-office performance as a complex, highly uncertain process governed by heavy-tailed, power-law distributions, where rare blockbusters dominate and forecasting is inherently unreliable. Drawing on data and models of information cascades and word-of-mouth, it explains why stars and big budgets are weak predictors, why traditional risk management fails, and how contracts, revenue sharing, release strategies, and portfolios evolve to cope with extreme risk. The result challenges conventional wisdom about hits, sequels, and studio decision-making, presenting the industry as a chaotic system where flexibility and decentralization are rational responses.
- Published
- 2004
- Nationality
- American
- Length
- Medium
- Pages
- 280-300
- Original Language
- English
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- Alternate Titles
- None
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