Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock is a renowned American political science and psychology professor known for his research on forecasting, judgment, and decision-making. He is particularly famous for his work on the Good Judgment Project and his book 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.'
Books
This list of books are ONLY the books that have been ranked on the lists that are aggregated on this site. This is not a comprehensive list of all books by this author.
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1. Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
In this insightful exploration of predictive accuracy, the book delves into the art and science of forecasting, revealing how certain individuals, known as "superforecasters," consistently outperform others in predicting future events. Through a blend of rigorous research and engaging anecdotes, it uncovers the traits and techniques that set these exceptional forecasters apart, such as open-mindedness, intellectual humility, and a relentless commitment to learning and adapting. The narrative challenges conventional wisdom about prediction, offering practical strategies for improving decision-making and enhancing foresight in an increasingly complex world.
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2. Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
This insightful work delves into the accuracy of political forecasting, examining the abilities of experts to predict future events. Through a comprehensive study spanning two decades, it reveals that experts often perform no better than chance, highlighting the limitations of human judgment in complex political environments. The book categorizes forecasters into "foxes," who embrace diverse perspectives and adapt to new information, and "hedgehogs," who rely on a single grand theory. It underscores the importance of humility, open-mindedness, and adaptability in improving the quality of political predictions.
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