The Emergence Of Probability by Ian Hacking

A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference

Traces how concepts of chance, risk, and statistical regularity took shape in early modern Europe, showing how practices in gambling, law, insurance, demography, and astronomy converged into a mathematical and philosophical framework for reasoning under uncertainty. It argues that a shift from deterministic explanations to probabilistic thinking emerged in the seventeenth century, distinguishing belief-based notions of probability from frequency-based views rooted in populations and error analysis. By examining debates over moral certainty, evidence, and induction, it reveals how the calculus of chances and early statistical methods transformed standards of knowledge and decision-making.

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